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‘What If’ Simulation Shows Potential Disaster Averted by Recent Power Shutoff
On Nov. 2, PG&E activated its Emergency Operations Center (EOC) in Vacaville, ahead of strong winds and other weather conditions that were forecasted to posed significant fire risk several days later. Over three days, PG&E sent multiple notifications to customers, public safety partners and government agencies alerting to a potential Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS).
Three days later, PG&E shut off power for safety to about 21,000 customers in the North Bay, western Sacramento Valley and other areas due to these forecasted weather conditions that entered our service area. PSPS events are an action of last resort and one of many components to PG&E’s multi-layered program to prevent catastrophic wildfires.
The offshore winds that materialized that evening and into the next day were the strongest since 2021. 40-50 mph winds were recorded in several areas, and one location — Mount St. Helena — reached up to 88 mph.
The planned power shutoff lasted between 24 and 48 hours for most customers. Once the period of wind risk had passed, PG&E crews were given the all-clear to begin patrols. During patrols, crews inspected for damage and other hazards first, made any needed repairs, and then restored power.
During these patrols, PG&E recorded 11 separate instances of damage to its assets and other hazards. One of these involved a tree that fell into PG&E’s power lines just north of the city of Sonoma on Norrbom Road. The force of the massive fallen tree knocked down powerlines, which ended up touching the ground.
PG&E's Meteorology team takes verified information about where damage occurred, factors in the weather at the time of the de-energization and runs a fire-spread model. This model visualizes what could have occurred if the line had not been de-energized and caused an ignition.
In the video below, PG&E Meteorologist Scott Strenfel discusses the potential catastrophic damage that could have occurred in this scenario due to the dry and windy conditions in that area.
While the model doesn’t account for any fire suppression activities, Scott notes, “It gives us some indication of the danger we have when we’re executing some of these important safety measures to protect our communities.”